Enjoy the playoff run this year Houston, because next year will be rough

That is right folks, even though the Astros are making a run at both the Wild Card and the Central Division Championship, I am a firm believer that Drayton will give the order to start to rebuild next year. That being said it is time for me to put on my General Manager hat to look at who will be here and who will be moving on. I will start with some obvious things, Drayton will not keep the payroll at $104 Million next year. I expect to see it in the mid to upper 50's maybe pushing 65 if they are in the playoff race again and they take on salary. So who will be here and who will not? Let's take a look.
The 2 key players to the whole equation are Roy Oswalt, and Lance Berkman. If Drayton is serious about being competitive while retooling the team these 2 need to be resigned to extensions sooner rather than later. Oswalt makes 11 Million and Berkman is at 14.5. As GM I would make the following contract offers. Berkman a 4 yr $ 70 Million contract with 2 option years based upon Games played over the first 3 and 4 years of the deal. If the 2 option years are vested, the contract would be 6 yrs 110 Million. Lance is still a elite level hitter and has become comfortable back at first base. With Oswalt I would make a similar contract offer but it would be 3 yrs 40 Million with 3 Option years that would take it if the Innings Pitched and Games Started levels were reached. to a 6 yr 90 Million. Again these deals would be ones where if they are healthy for the next 3 and 4 years they have some long term security, however it also protects the team against a career ending injury if it were to occur. With those road blocks out of the way we need to look at what is being lost.
For the 2 most obvious losses Roger Clemens and Jeff Bagwell. Between the 2 of them you are shaving almost 42 Million off of the payroll. Part of that savings would be taken by the new contracts for Oswalt and Berkman, but that is to be expected. I really believe that both of these players will hang it up for good. Bagwell simply because he cannot play in the field and Clemens because it is time.

Next on the list will be Andy Pettitte, now don't get me wrong, I would love to have him back next year to be the #2 pitcher behind Oswalt, however with his health issues I would rework his contract where he would receive nice bonuses for innings pitched. Maybe along the lines of a 3 yr 27 million deal where he could earn say $150,000 when he reached 150 innings pitched and another 100k for each additional 10 innings pitched as well as another 350k at 200 innings That would give him the opportunity to make another million dollars provided he stays healthy and makes the average contract for about 10 million a year, and maybe an attendance clause like what Clemens had in the first year in Houston. Craig Biggio is the other vet that should be back, however the primary reason to bring him back are as much off the field as on He needs to come back so that he can get his 3000th hit as an Astro. However he must be made to understand that after that event Chris Burke will be getting more time at second to help speed the transition for after his retirement.
Now I do not believe that Preston Wilson will have his $8 Million option picked up, I do think that they will offer a similar contract or arbitration to him. And at the same time the team needs to either offer Ensberg a 2 or 3 year deal averaging $4-5 Million per year, as well as make an offer to Aubrey Huff for the same length of time for around 7 -8 Million per year. The places that this team will get younger is in the pitching staff as well as a couple of role players will be replaced. That will be determined upon if Wilson and Huff resign with the team. If they do then you will be set in the outfield with Wilson, Huff, Luke Scott, Willie Taveras, and Orlando Palmero and Chris Burke. The infield will consist of Berkman at first with Biggio, and Burke at second. Everett at short, and I know everyone is going to say that Everett is a liability at short but I'll take his defense and a .250 batting average any day over some of the other options. Third base would be held down by a platoon of Huff and Ensberg with the clear understanding that whomever is playing best will get the majority of the playing time. Catcher is a question mark. If one of our catchers in the Minors really steps up then I will find a way to work him in to replace Asmus in the next year or 2.

Now we come to the Pitching staff. If Pettitte resigns things will be better, however if not you are looking at a starting rotation of Oswalt, Backe, and three questions, that is not a bad thing, There are plenty of young arms in the system to bring up and fill both the remaining rotation spots and the 2 or 3 bull pen spots behind Lidge, Wheeler, and Qualls. Springer and Miller are gone. I will bring the following pitchers into Spring training with the opportunity to earn a roster spot. Fernando Nieve, Chris Sampson, Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Hirsh, Matt Albers, Felipe Paulino. Troy Patton, Carlos Hernandez, and Mark McLemore. The best 2 or 3 starters and the best 2 that would fit into the bullpen would make the team. Now the hardest thing for the fans to swallow is that this team may struggle next year but there will be enough veterans around the young players to help them learn how to succeed in the show, and the following year and possibly 5 to 10 years, provided the team drafts well and aggressively promotes and challenges it's players in the minors to improve the team can be rebuilt and be a championship team for a long time.

I realize that Drayton and Tim Purpura may see things differently, let's just hope they realize that there will be a year or two where this team has to get younger and has to struggle, and that they will have to let the fans know this, and at the same time promote the next generation of Astros.